| Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -30.0% | -26% |
Highlights
UK manufacturing is grappling with renewed weakness. Output volumes fell at the joint-steepest pace in four years (minus 30), matching the downturn seen during the pandemic in August 2020. According to the May 2025 CBI industrial trends survey, output declined across 13 of 17 subsectors, notably metal products, food and drink, and mechanical engineering, underscoring a sector-wide malaise. Firms also anticipate further contraction through August.
Order books paint a similarly bleak picture. While export orders showed modest improvement, domestic and export books remain significantly below long-run averages, suggesting demand fragility at home and abroad. This activity decline is compounded by persistent cost pressuresenergy, labour, and policy-relatedpushing selling price expectations above historical norms (26 percent).
Despite adequate finished goods stock levels, confidence remains low, weighed down by policy uncertainty, high input costs, and global trade tensions, particularly regarding US tariffs. Even bright spots like aerospace and renewables are not enough to offset the broader slowdown.
This latest update demonstrates the urgent need for a revitalised UK industrial strategy that reduces regulatory burdens, enhances trade certainty, and promotes long-term investment to reinvigorate a sector pivotal to national economic resilience.
Order books paint a similarly bleak picture. While export orders showed modest improvement, domestic and export books remain significantly below long-run averages, suggesting demand fragility at home and abroad. This activity decline is compounded by persistent cost pressuresenergy, labour, and policy-relatedpushing selling price expectations above historical norms (26 percent).
Despite adequate finished goods stock levels, confidence remains low, weighed down by policy uncertainty, high input costs, and global trade tensions, particularly regarding US tariffs. Even bright spots like aerospace and renewables are not enough to offset the broader slowdown.
This latest update demonstrates the urgent need for a revitalised UK industrial strategy that reduces regulatory burdens, enhances trade certainty, and promotes long-term investment to reinvigorate a sector pivotal to national economic resilience.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
