At a decline of minus 1.4 percent in March from February, manufacturing sales top expectations for a decline of 1.9 percent. Sales are down 1.1 percent on the month, adjusted for inflation. Sales from a year ago are up 1.9 percent.

On the quarter, sales are up 1.6 percent after rising 1.1 percent in Q4. Transportation equipment is up 5.0 percent on quarter and primary metals gain 8.5 percent on quarter. On the downside, chemical products are down 3.6 percent in Q1 from Q4.

For the month, sales are down in 13 of 21 sectors, with primary metals down 6.5 percent and oil and coal down 4.2 percent. For oil and coal, the decline mostly reflects lower prices as constant dollar sales rose 1.0 percent.

Despite the monthly decline, primary metal sales are up 8.5 percent to $18.5 billion in the first quarter from Q$, making it the second-highest contributor to the quarterly gain.

The consensus agrees with the Statistics Canada preliminary estimate calling for a large decrease of 1.9 percent.

Manufacturing sales for twenty-one reporting industries are the Canadian dollar level of factory shipments for manufacturing durable and nondurable goods. Volume figures are also provided. The sales statistics form part of a wide monthly report that encompasses information on new orders, backlogs and inventories and is a key input into forecasts of monthly gross domestic product (GDP).

Manufacturer's shipments represent the monetary level of factory shipments for durable and nondurable goods and are a relevant indicator for an export-oriented economy. The data are used by analysts to evaluate the economic health of manufacturing industries. They are also used as inputs to GDP and needless to say, these data are used by the central bank in its decision-making process.

The monthly survey of manufacturing of which shipments is a part, provides a broad look at manufacturing activity levels. The level of activity in manufacturing can be affected by the level of interest rates which slows or stimulates the demand for goods and production. Shipments are an indication of how busy factories have been as manufacturers work to fill orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. Because a large proportion of shipments are headed south of the border to the U.S. and include a wide variety of durables, shipments are affected by U.S. economic activity as well as the exchange rate. Although the focus in this report is on shipments, it also contains information on inventories and new and unfilled orders.

Results from this survey are used by both the private and public sectors including finance departments of the federal and provincial governments, the Bank of Canada, Industry Canada, the System of National Accounts, the manufacturing community, consultants and research organizations in Canada, the United States and abroad.