| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment - M/M | -3,000 | -33,000 to 25,000 | 7,400 | -33,000 |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.8% | 6.7% to 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% |
| Participation Rate | 65.3% | 65.2% |
Highlights
The Canadian economy added 7,400 jobs in April, not enough to make up for shedding 33,000 in March, but better than expectations in Econoday's survey of forecasters for a decline of 3,000. The unemployment rate rose from 6.7 percent in March to 6.9 percent in April, higher than expectations for 6.8 percent.
April's anemic employment numbers follow's March's decline in employment (the first since January 2022), and February's flat employment reading. Before then, the employment rate had increased for three consecutive months from November 2024 to January 2025, driven by strong employment gains amid slower population growth, StatsCan said.
Compared to a year ago, employment is up by 268,800 (+1.3 percent) in April.
The data underlines the slowing pace of economic activity, with the trade war between Canada and the United States weighing on business confidence. This report, however, might add to the case for the Bank of Canada to remain on hold while it assesses the impact of the tariffs on economic conditions and inflation risks.
For April, employment fell in manufacturing (-31,000 or -1.6 percent) and wholesale and retail trade (-27,000; -0.9 percent) industries with direct exposure to trade uncertainty.
Private sector jobs fell by 26,800 in April after a decline of 48,000 in March and a 10,200 rise in February. Public sector employment jumped 22,900 following March's decline by 3,000, and +7,600 in February. Self-employment increased by 11,200, after rising by 18,000 in March.
The participation rate was 65.3 percent in April, vs. 65.2 percent in March and 65.3 percent in February. The participation rate is down 0.4 percentage points compared to a year ago.
Total hours worked rose 0.4 percent, the same as in March, and are up 0.9 percent from a year ago. Average hourly wages are up 3.4 percent year-over-year after the annual growth rate was +3.6 percent in March, and up 3.8 percent in February.
April's anemic employment numbers follow's March's decline in employment (the first since January 2022), and February's flat employment reading. Before then, the employment rate had increased for three consecutive months from November 2024 to January 2025, driven by strong employment gains amid slower population growth, StatsCan said.
Compared to a year ago, employment is up by 268,800 (+1.3 percent) in April.
The data underlines the slowing pace of economic activity, with the trade war between Canada and the United States weighing on business confidence. This report, however, might add to the case for the Bank of Canada to remain on hold while it assesses the impact of the tariffs on economic conditions and inflation risks.
For April, employment fell in manufacturing (-31,000 or -1.6 percent) and wholesale and retail trade (-27,000; -0.9 percent) industries with direct exposure to trade uncertainty.
Private sector jobs fell by 26,800 in April after a decline of 48,000 in March and a 10,200 rise in February. Public sector employment jumped 22,900 following March's decline by 3,000, and +7,600 in February. Self-employment increased by 11,200, after rising by 18,000 in March.
The participation rate was 65.3 percent in April, vs. 65.2 percent in March and 65.3 percent in February. The participation rate is down 0.4 percentage points compared to a year ago.
Total hours worked rose 0.4 percent, the same as in March, and are up 0.9 percent from a year ago. Average hourly wages are up 3.4 percent year-over-year after the annual growth rate was +3.6 percent in March, and up 3.8 percent in February.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Employment is expected down by a modest 3,000 after dropping by 33,000 in March. That is not enough to prevent an uptick in the jobless rate to 6.8% from 6.7%.
Definition
The Labour Force Survey is a key economic indicator giving an overall picture of employment and unemployment. Employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.
Description
As in the U.S., this report is used as an indicator of the health of the domestic economy. Employment trends and break-downs by industry groups highlight the strength in job creation and the implications for future sectoral activity. The unemployment rate is used as an indicator of tightness in labor markets and can foreshadow a future increase in wages. Labor force data provide investors with the earliest signs of industry performance. While other data are produced with a month or two delay, these data are available only a week to 10 days after the end of the latest month. Reactions can be dramatic - especially when the result is unanticipated.
The information in the report is invaluable for investors. By looking at employment trends in the various sectors, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio. If employment in certain industries is growing, there could be investment opportunities in the firms within that industry.
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
The information in the report is invaluable for investors. By looking at employment trends in the various sectors, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio. If employment in certain industries is growing, there could be investment opportunities in the firms within that industry.
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
