| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -1.5% | -2.0% to -1.0% | -0.9% | -1.1% | 0.2% |
| Year over Year | 0.0% | -1.3% to 0.4% | 0.7% | -0.3% | 1.0% |
Highlights
Japan's industrial production posted its first drop in three months in April, down 0.9% (consensus -1.5%) after a slight 0.2% gain (revised up sharply from -1.1%) in Mach as some effects of the global trade war initiated by President Trump are showing in sluggish export data. The decrease was led by lower output of production machinery (equipment for making flat screen panels, textile and microchips), aircraft parts and metals (bridges, aluminum cans for beverages, etc.)
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said six out of the 15 industries recorded declines while eight showed gains and one was unchanged. METI's survey of producers indicated that output would rebound 5.2% in May, led by production machinery, electric/telecom equipment and vehicles. before slipping back 3.4% in June due to expected pullbacks in vehicles and production machinery.
From a year earlier, factory output marked its fourth straight gain, up 0.7%, after rising 1.0% (revised up from -0.3%) in March.
The ministry maintained its assessment, saying industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back." It said it will keep a close watch on how global economic growth evolves. In its monthly report for May, Japan's government continued to put on a brave face on the global trade war and politically explosive food price inflation, maintaining its cautiously optimistic domestic economic outlook for the ninth straight month, saying the economy is expected stay on a modest recovery track.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said six out of the 15 industries recorded declines while eight showed gains and one was unchanged. METI's survey of producers indicated that output would rebound 5.2% in May, led by production machinery, electric/telecom equipment and vehicles. before slipping back 3.4% in June due to expected pullbacks in vehicles and production machinery.
From a year earlier, factory output marked its fourth straight gain, up 0.7%, after rising 1.0% (revised up from -0.3%) in March.
The ministry maintained its assessment, saying industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back." It said it will keep a close watch on how global economic growth evolves. In its monthly report for May, Japan's government continued to put on a brave face on the global trade war and politically explosive food price inflation, maintaining its cautiously optimistic domestic economic outlook for the ninth straight month, saying the economy is expected stay on a modest recovery track.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japan’s industrial production is forecast to post its first drop in three months in April, down 1.5%, after a slight 0.2% gain (revised up sharply from -1.1%) in Mach as the impact of the global trade war initiated by President Trump is expected to start showing in export data.
The monthly survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry released last month indicated that output would slump 2.5% in April (adjusted for the forecast index’s upward bias), pulled down by declines in electrical/information devices, chemicals and refined petroleum products before rising 3.9% in May, led by a rebound in autos and electrical/information equipment.
From a year earlier, factory output is expected to be unchanged after rising 1.0% (revised up from -0.3%) in March for the third consecutive gain.
Last month, the ministry maintained its assessment, saying industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back." The last change was made in the July 2024 report, when it upgraded its view. Previously, it had said production “has weakened while taking one step forward and one step back.”
In its monthly report for May issued last week, the government maintained its cautiously optimistic domestic economic outlook for the ninth straight month while downgrading its overall assessment of the world economy for the first time in 10 months, saying Japan is expected stay on a “modest recovery” track. It repeated that the economy is “recovering at a moderate pace but confronted by the uncertainty arising from the U.S. trade policy.” In the report, it maintained its view on industrial production, which has been “flat.”
The monthly survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry released last month indicated that output would slump 2.5% in April (adjusted for the forecast index’s upward bias), pulled down by declines in electrical/information devices, chemicals and refined petroleum products before rising 3.9% in May, led by a rebound in autos and electrical/information equipment.
From a year earlier, factory output is expected to be unchanged after rising 1.0% (revised up from -0.3%) in March for the third consecutive gain.
Last month, the ministry maintained its assessment, saying industrial output is"taking one step forward and one step back." The last change was made in the July 2024 report, when it upgraded its view. Previously, it had said production “has weakened while taking one step forward and one step back.”
In its monthly report for May issued last week, the government maintained its cautiously optimistic domestic economic outlook for the ninth straight month while downgrading its overall assessment of the world economy for the first time in 10 months, saying Japan is expected stay on a “modest recovery” track. It repeated that the economy is “recovering at a moderate pace but confronted by the uncertainty arising from the U.S. trade policy.” In the report, it maintained its view on industrial production, which has been “flat.”
Definition
Industrial Production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Factories manufacture various products, and the industrial production indexes have been prepared as a comprehensive indicator of wide-ranging production activities for such products and are regarded as some of the most important among economic indexes.
Description
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
Industrial production provides key industry data for this export-dependent economy. The data are issued twice a month-a preliminary estimate at the end of the month for the preceding month and a revised estimate about two weeks later. All products, whether sold domestically or abroad, are included in the calculation of industrial production. Industrial production is highly sensitive to the business cycle and can often predict future changes in employment, earnings and income. For these reasons industrial production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the economy. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
Industrial production provides key industry data for this export-dependent economy. The data are issued twice a month-a preliminary estimate at the end of the month for the preceding month and a revised estimate about two weeks later. All products, whether sold domestically or abroad, are included in the calculation of industrial production. Industrial production is highly sensitive to the business cycle and can often predict future changes in employment, earnings and income. For these reasons industrial production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the economy. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
