ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Month over Month0.24%0.58%
Year over Year5.1%5.9%6.0%5.0% to 6.0%

Highlights

Chinese retail sales rose 5.1 percent on the year in April, moderating from growth of 5.9 percent in March and well below the consensus forecast of 6.0 percent. In month-over-month terms, retail sales rose 0.24 percent in April after an increase of 0.58 percent in March.

In their statement accompanying today's monthly activity data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy maintained stable growth despite pressure, with steady and fast growth in major indicators. Officials noted an increasing impact of external shocks and warned that there are many unstable and uncertain factors in the external environment. Although they again pledged to implement more proactive and effective macro policies", officials provided no specific guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.

Activity data published today were mixed relative to consensus forecasts, with retail sales weaker and industrial production slightly stronger. The China's RPI fell from plus 14 to minus 14 while the RPI-P fell from plus 20 to minus 20, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are still coming in just below consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Sales growth seen flattish at 6.0 percent in April versus 5.9 percent in March.

Definition

Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.

Description

Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
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