| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | -0.25 | -0.03 | 0.03 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | 0.05 | -0.01 | 0.05 |
Highlights
The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) is down to minus 0.25 in April after positive 0.03 in March. The April index is down for a second month in a row and the lowest since minus 0.50 in October 2024. The four broad categories of indicators that make up the index show 1 positive and 3 negative contributions in April. Among the categories 1 increased and 3 decreased.
The Chicago Fed says,"Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35." The trend lower suggests that economic conditions are weaker, although not in recession.
Production-related indicators are down to minus 0.18 in April after minus 0.07 in March. Sales, orders, and inventories are down to positive 0.04 in April after minus 0.06 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are up to minus 0.00 in April after positive 0.05 in March. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are down to minus 0.04 in April after positive 0.09 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in April is positive 0.05, unchanged from the prior month. The average is consistent with modest expansion and has been fairly stable for the past four months.
The Chicago Fed says,"Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35." The trend lower suggests that economic conditions are weaker, although not in recession.
Production-related indicators are down to minus 0.18 in April after minus 0.07 in March. Sales, orders, and inventories are down to positive 0.04 in April after minus 0.06 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are up to minus 0.00 in April after positive 0.05 in March. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are down to minus 0.04 in April after positive 0.09 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in April is positive 0.05, unchanged from the prior month. The average is consistent with modest expansion and has been fairly stable for the past four months.
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Description
This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
