At 48.5, the final PMI composite index for April was 0.3 points above the flash estimate and consensus but down 3.0 point from March's final. The composite index for April fell below the 50-growth threshold for the first time in one and a half years, signalling contraction of business activity.

The service sector index declined to a final 49.0, up 0.1 points from the flash estimate and consensus but down 3.5 points from March's 52.5. This signals fresh contraction, well below the long-run average of 54.3. New business fell for the third time in four months, with exports also falling the lowest in four years. This is due to rising global tensions, loss of client confidence, and US tariffs' impacts. Employment continued its downward trend with staffing numbers falling for the seventh month in a row, due to rising payroll costs and rising contributions of the National Insurance Contributions, particularly in leisure, hospitality, and other consumer services. Business confidence fell to its lowest since 2022.

April's data put the UK RPI at 13 and the RPI-P at 24, meaning that overall economic activity is slightly outperforming market forecasts.

No change from the flash at 48.2 is the call for the April composite final, down from 51.5 in March. No change is expected from the flash at 48.9 for services, down from 52.5 in March.

The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.