| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claimant Count - M/M | 5.2 | 18.7 | -16.9 | ||
| Claimant Count Unemployment Rate | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% to 4.5% |
| ILO Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | 4.4% | |||
| Average Earnings - Y/Y | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% |
Highlights
The UK labour market reflects both resilience and emerging fragilities in March. The estimate for payrolled employees in March 2025 indicates a monthly decline of 78,000 (0.3 percent) and an annual decrease of 70,000 (0.2 percent), bringing the total to 30.3 million, suggesting a possible cooling in hiring momentum.
Unemployment stood at 4.4 percent, marginally higher than a year ago, while economic inactivity declined to 21.4 percent, hinting at a modest return of people to the labour force. However, job vacancies continued their downward trend, falling for the 33rd consecutive quarter by 26,000 to 781,000, now below pre-pandemic levels for the first time in four years.
Despite this, wage growth remains strong, with regular pay up 5.9 percent annually and real terms earnings rising by 2.1 percent, bolstered by declining inflation. Yet the rise in the claimant count to 1.77 million and the 52,000 working days lost to labour disputes in February 2025 point to underlying tensions.
Indeed, while the employment rate remains relatively high at 75.1 percent, early 2025 data reflect a labour market in flux, still recovering, but increasingly constrained by economic uncertainty and structural adjustments. This latest update leaves the RPI at 13 and the RPI-P at 24, meaning that economic activities remain well ahead of expectations in the UK.
Unemployment stood at 4.4 percent, marginally higher than a year ago, while economic inactivity declined to 21.4 percent, hinting at a modest return of people to the labour force. However, job vacancies continued their downward trend, falling for the 33rd consecutive quarter by 26,000 to 781,000, now below pre-pandemic levels for the first time in four years.
Despite this, wage growth remains strong, with regular pay up 5.9 percent annually and real terms earnings rising by 2.1 percent, bolstered by declining inflation. Yet the rise in the claimant count to 1.77 million and the 52,000 working days lost to labour disputes in February 2025 point to underlying tensions.
Indeed, while the employment rate remains relatively high at 75.1 percent, early 2025 data reflect a labour market in flux, still recovering, but increasingly constrained by economic uncertainty and structural adjustments. This latest update leaves the RPI at 13 and the RPI-P at 24, meaning that economic activities remain well ahead of expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus forecast sees ILO unemployment ticking up to 4.5 percent from 4.4 percent in the last reading as the employment market is cooling slowly.
Definition
The Labour Market Report covers a number of key areas of the jobs market. Unemployment is updated on the basis of two separate surveys: the claimant count, which measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, and the more reliable but lagging International Labour Organization's (ILO) measure that excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are both looking and are available for work. Average earnings growth, a key determinant of inflation, is also updated.
Description
The labour market survey gives the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.
The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.
