On a monthly basis, retail trade volume dipped slightly by 0.1 percent, following a modest revised gain of 0.2 percent in February, indicating a pause in consumer momentum. Sector-wise, food, drinks, and tobacco sales edged down 0.1 percent, while non-food products also saw a 0.1 percent declineperhaps signalling a tightening in discretionary spending. However, automotive fuel sales offered a modest lift, rising by 0.4 percent, possibly driven by increased mobility or seasonal factors.

On an annual basis, the picture was more encouraging. Retail trade rose by 1.5 percent compared to March 2024, buoyed by a 2.3 percent rise in non-food product sales and a 0.6 percent increase in food and drink purchases. Automotive fuel sales also rose by 0.9 percent, suggesting overall consumer demand remains more robust than monthly figures alone imply.

Despite revised February data showing a slightly weaker performance, the broader trend hints at cautious consumer confidence. The modest monthly dip may reflect ongoing economic uncertainty, while the annual growth points to underlying resilience in euro area consumption. The latest update leaves the RPI at 19 and the RPI-P at 8, meaning that economic activities are ahead of the expectations of the euro area economy.

Sales are expected flat on the month and up 1.6 percent on year in March after rising 0.3 percent on the month and 2.3 percent on year in February.

Retail sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. Eurozone retail sales are reported monthly, in volume terms and exclude autos and motorcycles. A limited sector breakdown is presented in the first release but much more detail is available in the following period's release.

Retail sales are important indicators of domestic consumer demand and are monitored closely by analysts as an important input to GDP. If you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The data are available in both value and volume measures although the press release deals only with volume. In addition to the total, the initial report provides a limited breakdown that separately identifies food, drink and tobacco, and (excluding automotive fuel) non-food products. A more comprehensive dataset is only available with the following month's release. Unlike the U.S. and Canada, auto sales are not included in the retail sales data.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.