In March 2025, industrial producer prices in the euro area posted a dual narrative: a sharp monthly decline of 1.6 percent contrasted with a 1.9 percent annual rise. This dropthe steepest in recent monthswas primarily driven by a significant 5.8 percent fall in energy prices, reflecting easing input cost pressures. Excluding energy, prices nudged up by 0.1 percent, indicating moderate inflationary momentum in other sectors.

Monthly gains were modest across capital goods (0.1 percent), durable consumer goods (0.2 percent), and non-durable consumer goods (0.5 percent), while intermediate goods prices remained unchanged. On an annual basis, energy was again the biggest driver, up 3.8 percent, followed by capital goods (1.8 percent) and non-durable goods (1.7 percent). The 1.3 percent rise in prices excluding energy points to underlying resilience in industrial cost structures.

The figures suggest a stabilising cost environment for producers, shaped by a cooling energy market and steady, albeit cautious, consumer and capital goods pricing increases. While energy volatility continues to skew monthly trends, the broader inflation picture remains moderate, offering some relief to producers and policymakers navigating price stability and growth.

The Producer Prices Index (PPI) measures the gross trading price of industrial goods sold into the domestic market. Changes in the index provide a guide to inflation from the point of view of the product's producer/manufacturer and, in contrast to the consumer price index (CPI), excludes VAT and other deductible taxed associated with turnover. The PPI covers manufacturing, mining and quarrying and utilities but excludes construction. The headline index can be very volatile so financial markets look at a core index to better understand underlying trends. This excludes the often highly erratic energy subsector.

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the HICP. By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months.

Like the HICP, Eurostat's producer price index is also harmonized across the EMU and the larger EU membership. Producer price indexes provide another layer of information on inflation and can be an early warning of inflationary pressures building in the economy. They also record the evolution of prices over longer periods of time. The PPI reports on input prices or commodity prices and can tell whether producers are able to pass through increases in costs to their customers.

The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.

Producer prices are more volatile than consumer prices. The CPI includes services components which are more stable than goods, while the PPI does not. Commodity prices react more quickly to supply and demand. Volatility is higher earlier in the production chain. Partly because of this, financial markets will look to the core (ex-energy) index to provide a better guide to underlying trends.