ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Initial Claims - Level230K225K to 232K240K227K226K
Initial Claims - Change14K-2K-2K
4-Week Moving Average230.75K231.5K231K

Highlights

Initial claims numbers warmed up in the latest week after being steady so far in May. However, the persistently high level of continuing claims (breaking above 1.9 million for the third time in the past five weeks) backs up Fed officials' concerns reported in the minutes of the May FOMC meeting that there was a risk that the labor market would weaken in coming months.

Initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, with the level reported in the week ending May 24 up by 14,000 from the revised 226,000 (previously 229,000) level reported for the prior week. The May 24 week's level is above the consensus of 230,000 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The four-week moving average is down 250 to 230,750 in the May 24 week.

Seasonal factors had expected a decline in unadjusted claims of 1,131 (-0.6 percent) from the previous week, but instead there was a 10,742 (+5.3 percent) jump.

Michigan (+3,329) reported a noticeable increase in unadjusted first-time claims. No states reported significant declines.

Insured unemployment rose by 26,000 in the May 17 week to 1.919 million from a downwardly revised 1.893 million in the prior week and continuing claims are higher by 121,000 compared to the same week a year ago, an ongoing reminder of the labor market's softness.

The four-week moving average is up by 2,750 to 1.890 million, from a revised 1.887 million in the May 10 week. The insured rate of unemployment rose to 1.3 percent in the May 17 week.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Claims are seen at 230 K versus 227 K in the previous week.

Definition

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Description

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
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