According to the CBI Industrial Trends Survey, UK manufacturing sentiment took a marked downturn in April 2025, reflecting deepening cost pressures and a weakening global demand outlook. While overall output was broadly stable (minus 2 percent) thanks to strength in motor vehicles and transport equipment, most subsectors saw falling volumes, and firms expect a further decline by July (minus 5 percent).

Domestic and export orders dropped, and future expectations point to continued contraction. Export order books fell sharply to their lowest since late 2020 (minus 41 percent), with half of firms citing international political and economic instability as a limiting factor, echoing early pandemic-era uncertainty.

Costs rose at a faster pace, and firms anticipate this trend will worsen. Domestic prices are expected to climb, though export prices remain flat. Investment intentions remain dismal across all fronts, from machinery and innovation to training, driven by demand uncertainty, low returns, and persistent labour shortages.

Employment fell at the fastest rate since October 2020, with more cuts anticipated. As business confidence erodes further, manufacturers are retreating into caution mode. Without decisive intervention or stronger demand signals, the sector risks entering a deeper phase of stagnation just as broader economic conditions remain fragile.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.

Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.

Frequency
Monthly and quarterly