Highlights
Trump raised China's tariff penalty to 125 percent as punishment for retaliating against the US tariffs, but his reversal on tariffs for pretty much everyone else set off an extraordinary rebound in stocks, commodities and risk assets in general. The surge in risk assets also removed some selling pressure from the US Treasury market, which had suffered huge losses as investors appeared to be shunning all US assets in the big risk off move which continued until Trump's stunning shift on tariffs. Bonds also got a lift from a surprisingly successful Treasury 10-year note auction, which reassured the market that global investors were not so averse to Treasuries after all. Despite the improvement, bond yields remained higher on the day as investors scaled back expectations for aggressive near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts which had been inspired by recession fears flowing from Trump's tariff policy.
Some investors remain skeptical that Trump's tariff pause will stick and noted that in the past, Trump has paused tariffs only to bring them back later. Trump claimed his reversal reflected a victory for his trade policy as countries beat a path to the White House seeking concessions. Skeptics point out that there are no negotiations involving the EU or China, among the biggest players. Others appeared more upbeat. Goldman Sachs was among analysts scaling back its risk of recession after Trump's latest tariff twist.
Among sectors, big technology stocks and big banks led the winners, as did airlines and cruise lines which have been beaten up badly on recession fears.