Highlights
Markets on Friday are expected to continue to trade in response to President Trump's much more aggressive than expected tariff plans. The vigil will begin for specifics on how countries targeted by Trump will retaliate, and in turn how Trump responds, or whether there are signs that Trump or his counterparties are ready to dial back the confrontation. The perception in markets is that Trump has assigned his punitive tariffs in a way that suggests he is not interested in negotiations and that he plans to keep the taxes in place indefinitely. Notwithstanding his insistence that the tariff rollout is going well, it will be hard to ignore an ongoing global market meltdown with the threat of rising inflation, global recession and instability.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled appearance at 11:25 am ET before a conference of business journalists will attract a lot of attention, as he is certain to be asked for his view on the economic and policy outlook given the dramatic turn of events. Analysts appear split over whether the inflationary aspect of the tariffs will prevent the Fed from cutting rates this year, or the opposing view, that a weakening economy will force the Fed to ease aggressively, starting at the next meeting in May.
The other focus Friday will be the monthly US employment report, due at 8:30am ET. Expectations center on a rise of 131,000 in nonfarm jobs, with the unemployment rate up to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent in February. Given the market's rising fear of recession, any downside surprise is likely to see a big response, just as a moderately weaker than expected ISM services report on Thursday aggravated recession worries and depressed bond yields further.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled appearance at 11:25 am ET before a conference of business journalists will attract a lot of attention, as he is certain to be asked for his view on the economic and policy outlook given the dramatic turn of events. Analysts appear split over whether the inflationary aspect of the tariffs will prevent the Fed from cutting rates this year, or the opposing view, that a weakening economy will force the Fed to ease aggressively, starting at the next meeting in May.
The other focus Friday will be the monthly US employment report, due at 8:30am ET. Expectations center on a rise of 131,000 in nonfarm jobs, with the unemployment rate up to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent in February. Given the market's rising fear of recession, any downside surprise is likely to see a big response, just as a moderately weaker than expected ISM services report on Thursday aggravated recession worries and depressed bond yields further.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
