| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.6% | -0.8% | -0.4% |
| Year over Year | -0.6% | -1.4% | -1.2% |
Highlights
The monthly price contractions fall within the broader context of declining producer prices which fell 0.6 percent in March on a year-on-year comparison, the sixteenth consecutive monthly decline.
Prices for food, beverages, and tobacco rose in March (0.9 percent), after 0.6 percent in February. For the year, prices are up 2.8 percent. Higher food prices are evident in the consumer prices, raising the prospect of how much producers can pass increases along to an already cautious consumer.
Import prices for industrial products fell 1.2 percent in March compared to February when they rose 0.2 percent. Manufactured product prices fell 0.5 percent on the month, while those for coke and refined petroleum products contracted 8.3 percent. In the coming months import prices will shed some light on the effects of US tariffs.
For now, there is an easing of overall pipeline inflation, but the current environment in the face of tariffs remains uncertain.
Definition
Description
Because the index of producer prices measures price changes at an early stage in the economic process, it can serve as an indicator of future inflation trends. The producer price index and its sub-indexes are often used in business contracts for the adjustment of recurring payments. They also are used to deflate other values of economic statistics like the production index. It should be noted that the PPI excludes construction.
The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.
The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.
The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.