| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.44% | 0.51% | ||
| Year over Year | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% to 6.3% |
Highlights
Chinese industrial production rose 7.7 percent on the year in March, accelerating from growth of 5.9 percent in January and February combined and well above the consensus forecast of 5.8 percent. In month-over-month terms, industrial production rose 0.44 percent in March.
Within the industrial sector, manufacturing output rose 7.1 percent on the year in March after increasing 6.9 percent on the year for January and February combined. Utilities output and mining output rose 1.9 percent and 6.2 percent on the year respectively after previous increases of 1.1 percent and 4.3 percent respectively.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy was off to a good start" in 2025. Although officials did not explicitly refer to the recent escalation in global trade tensions and market volatility, they cautioned that the external environment is"complex and severe" and that drivers of domestic demand remain insufficient". Although they again pledged to"implement more proactive and effective macro policies", officials provided no specific guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were generally stronger than consensus forecasts. The China's RPI fell from plus 57 to plus 37 while the RPI-P fell from plus 100 to plus 72, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are still coming in well above consensus forecasts.
Within the industrial sector, manufacturing output rose 7.1 percent on the year in March after increasing 6.9 percent on the year for January and February combined. Utilities output and mining output rose 1.9 percent and 6.2 percent on the year respectively after previous increases of 1.1 percent and 4.3 percent respectively.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy was off to a good start" in 2025. Although officials did not explicitly refer to the recent escalation in global trade tensions and market volatility, they cautioned that the external environment is"complex and severe" and that drivers of domestic demand remain insufficient". Although they again pledged to"implement more proactive and effective macro policies", officials provided no specific guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were generally stronger than consensus forecasts. The China's RPI fell from plus 57 to plus 37 while the RPI-P fell from plus 100 to plus 72, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are still coming in well above consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Growth in industrial production is seen relatively steady at 5.8 percent on year in March, little changed from 5.9 percent in February.
Definition
Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.
Description
Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.
The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
