| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 97.1 | 103.9 | 103.2 |
Highlights
The economic outlook turned sharply lower in April, falling 6.1 points to 97.1, and dropping below 100 for the first time since December of last year, as the majority of sectors were negative.
Manufacturing had the most pronounced setback, with widespread sectoral declines including machinery and equipment manufacturers, paper and printing and electrical equipment. At the same time, stocks of finished goods increased, although that could mark the kind of inventory buildup indicating fewer orders rather than anticipation of increased business.
The export outlook was also viewed negatively, most likely in light of the US tariff situation which remains unclear.
Manufacturing had the most pronounced setback, with widespread sectoral declines including machinery and equipment manufacturers, paper and printing and electrical equipment. At the same time, stocks of finished goods increased, although that could mark the kind of inventory buildup indicating fewer orders rather than anticipation of increased business.
The export outlook was also viewed negatively, most likely in light of the US tariff situation which remains unclear.
Definition
The KOF Economic Indicator is a composite leading indicator that aims to identify shifts in the Swiss business cycle around three months ahead of the actual event and, until the start of 2014, was based on twenty-five different economic indicators. The old version of the KOF Economic Indicator used the previous year's GDP growth rate published by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) as a yardstick. The revised measure still incorporates SECO data; however, KOF has changed over to month-on-month changes in GDP which are generated via statistical methods. This reference series is not about exact GDP figures but about the direction and strength of the economic trend. The new objective of the Barometer is the same as the old objective: achieving maximum possible accuracy in predicting the Swiss business cycle.
Description
The indicator measures overall economic activity through a qualitative business survey about developments in the recent past, the current situation and expectations for the next three to six months. Getting an accurate handle on where the economy is headed is inevitably a vital element in all investment decisions and the new measure uses some 219 variables in order to do just that. The set of variables will be reviewed every autumn.
Survey questions relate to production, orders and stocks of finished goods. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute publishes this indicator monthly.
Survey questions relate to production, orders and stocks of finished goods. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute publishes this indicator monthly.
