The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) is down to minus 0.03 in March after positive 0.24 in February. The four broad categories of indicators that make up the index show 1 positive and 3 negative contributions in March. Among the categories 2 increased and 2 decreased.

While the February index got a boost from production-related indicators as manufacturers front-loaded some activity in anticipation of higher tariffs, that was exhausted in March. The only positive component for March is from personal consumption and housing where consumers bought some big-ticket items in anticipation of higher prices in the near future and were in the housing market while mortgage interest rates dipped. The CFNAI is not yet signaling recession but it is consistent with uncertain economic conditions. The Chicago Fed says,"Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35."

Production-related indicators are down to minus 0.09 in March after positive 0.25 in February. Sales, orders, and inventories are down to positive 0.03 in March after minus 0.01 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are up to minus 0.01 in March after minus 0.02 in February. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are up to positive 0.11 in March after positive 0.00 one month ago.


The three-month moving average CFNAI in March is minus 0.01 compared to positive 0.12 in the prior month. The average moves down after two months of positive readings.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.