ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
BalanceA$3.1BA$2.4B to A$4.9BA$6.900BA$2.968BA$2.852B
Imports - M/M-2.2%1.6%1.8%
Imports - Y/Y0.9%-0.2%-0.1%
Exports - M/M7.6%-3.6%-4.2%
Exports -Y/Y6.1%-8.1%-8.5%

Highlights

Australia's goods trade surplus widened from a revised A$2.852 billion in February to A$6.900 billion in March, well above the consensus forecast of A$3.1 billion. These data pre-date the escalation of global trade tensions and market volatility at the start of April.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 7.6 percent on the month in March, rebounding sharply from a decline of 4.2 percent in February, with exports advancing 6.1 percent on the year after a previous decline of 8.5 percent. Imports fell 2.2 percent on the month after increasing 1.8 percent previously, with year-over-year growth picking up from a fall of 0.1 percent to an increase of 0.9 percent.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The trade surplus is seen at A$3.1 billion in March versus A$2.968 billion in February.

Definition

The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.

Description

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
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