The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators is down by 0.7 percent in March from February, exceeding the 0.5 percent decline anticipated in the Econoday consensus forecast. February's 0.3 percent decrease is revised to show a 0.2 percent fall.

For March, the components of the LEI accounting for much of the decline reflect the impact of uncertainty ahead of announcements of President Trump's trade policy, the Conference Board says. These components are consumer sentiment, stock prices, and new orders for manufacturing. In the event, the April 2"reciprocal" trade announcement proved more aggressive than expected, with negative fallout accelerating in April.

With the March decline, the LEI is down 1.2 percent over the last six months compared with a steeper drop of 2.3 percent over the prior six months.

The Conference Board says the results point to slowing growth ahead but they do not indicate that a recession has begun or is about to begin. The board sees growth of 1.6 percent in 2025. A worsening trade war is likely to mean"higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market, it says.

LEI expected to weaken to minus 0.5 percent in March after a decline of 0.3 percent in February. The US outlook appears increasingly gloomy as tariff uncertainty weighs heavily.

The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly -- and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves.