Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.1% | 0.4% |
Year over Year | 0.8% | 1.3% |
Highlights
Inventory changes contributed 0.5 percent in the quarter. It's unclear whether this is due to stocking ahead of an anticipated upturn, or because of an economic slowdown. Excluding inventories, domestic demand was unchanged on the month, suggesting the former is the more likely scenario.
Although imports increased 0.4 percent in the first quarter, exports fell 0.7 percent after rising 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter. As a result, net foreign trade contributed minus 0.4 percent.
Consumer spending was unchanged in the first quarter, slowing from 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter.
Compared to the first quarter of 2024, the French economy expanded 0.8 percent.
Although the economy eked out a modest expansion in the first quarter, rising inventories, a cautious consumer, and declining exports point to a subdued economy.
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.