ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Job Openings7.600M7.500M to 7.710M7.568M7.740M7.762M

Highlights

The data on job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) in February suggests further cooling in the labor market. The number of job openings is down for the third month in a row to 7.568 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate after a small upward revision to 7.762 million in January. The February level is close to the consensus of 7.600 million in the Econoday survey of forecasters. While the level of job openings is consistent with a healthy labor market, the trend points to sustained deceleration. In February 2024, the level was 8.445 million. The job opening rate is 4.5 in February after 4.7 in January, and down six-tenths from 5.1 in February 2024.

Job openings are down 193,000 for private industries, much of it due to a 126,000 decline in retail and 61,000 in leisure and hospitality. There were some gains in other industries, notably a 134,000 rise in professional and business services, the source of which is unclear. The composition points to concerns about weakness in consumer activity and elimination of open jobs in those areas. Government job openings are down 1,000, mainly in state and local government, with a 6,000 increase at the federal level.

The level of hires has been positive for the past three months, the pace has been declining and is at a meager 25,000 in February to 5.396 million. Private industries added 46,000 to payrolls in February while government hires are down 21,000. Weakness in hiring is widespread in February but got an offset from a sharp rise of 82,000 in professional and business services. It is possible that some businesses are finally able to find skilled workers in a less competitive job market. The hiring rate is unchanged at 3.4 in February from January.

Total separations are down 11,000 to 5.261 million in February, a pause after a large increase of 185,000 in January. Separations in private industry are down 44,000 in February, although broad-based modest declines received some offset from an increase of 47,000 in retail and 27,000 in leisure and hospitality. Separations are up 33,000 in government with federal up 11,000 and state and local up 22,000. The separations rate is unchanged at 3.3 in February from January.

The number of people voluntarily quitting a subset of separations is down 61,000 to 3.195 million in February. This is a sharp reversal from an increase of 224,000 in the prior month. The number of people leaving their jobs by choice is trending lower, albeit unevenly. Some may be taking retirement or waiting for a better opportunity if the current period of uncertainty becomes less worrisome in terms of job security. The quits rate remains about unchanged for the past six months and is at 2.0 in February.

However, the level of layoffs and discharges another subset of separations is up 116,000 in February to 1.790 million. Layoffs are up 96,000 in private industries and up 21,000 in government. The layoffs and discharges rate is unchanged at 1.1 in February and for most of the past year.

While this data lags the monthly employment report by a month, it complements other labor market data that points to slower hiring and rising job losses, the reverse of the situation that helped the economy recover after the disruptions of the pandemic.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Openings are seen correcting down to a rate of 7.60 million in February after rising to 7.740 million in January from 7.508 million in December.

Definition

The Labor Department's JOLTS report tracks monthly change in job openings and offers rates on hiring and quits. The reporting period lags other employment data including the employment situation report. The word JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Description

Although lagging the release timing of the employment situation report by a month, JOLTS provides additional information on the labor market. The payroll survey in the employment situation report provides numbers on net job changes. JOLTS breaks down labor market data into pre-net changes such as job openings, hires, and separations.
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