| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Prices - M/M | 0.0% | -0.2% to 1.9% | -0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Import Prices - Y/Y | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | ||
| Export Prices - M/M | 0.1% | -0.1% to 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Export Prices - Y/Y | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% |
Highlights
The import price index is down 0.1 percent in March from February after a downward revision to up 0.2 percent in February from January. The March decline is just below the consensus of unchanged in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The March decline is due to a 2.3 percent drop in the price index for fuel imports while the index for nonfuel imports is up 0.1 percent. The import price index is up 0.9 percent compared to March 2024 with the index for fuel imports down 5.2 percent and nonfuel imports up 1.5 percent.
Some of the decrease in fuel costs reflects falling energy prices which are priced in US dollars and some a firming in the US dollar from the same time last year.
The March import price index for foods, feeds, and beverages is up 0.1 percent month-over-month and up 6.4 percent year-over-year. The index for industrial supplies and materials is down 0.6 in March from February and up 2.4 percent year-over-year. The index for fuel prices reflects month-over-month declines of 1.5 percent for petroleum, 15.8 percent for coal and gas fuels, and 19.8 percent for natural gas. While petroleum prices are down 6.7 percent compared to a year ago, coals and gas fuels are up 45.2 percent and natural gas up 88.5 percent.
The indexes for imported finished goods are mixed in March. The index for capital gods is up 0.3 percent month-over-month and up 0.1 percent compared to March 2024. The index for automotive is down 0.1 percent from the prior month and up 1.1 percent from a year ago. The index for consumer goods excluding autos is down 0.2 percent from the prior month and down 0.7 percent from a year ago.
The export price index for foods, feeds, and beverages is up 0.2 percent in March from February and up 2.5 percent from a year ago. The index for exports of industrial supplies and materials is down 0.6 percent month-over-month and up 3.0 percent from March 2024.
The index for exports of finished goods are higher. In March, the indexes for capital goods exports is up 0.5 percent month-over-month and up 2.0 percent year-over-year, automotive is up 0.2 percent month-over-month and up 2.7 percent year-over-year, and consumer goods excluding autos is up 0.3 percent month-over-month and up 0.8 percent year-over-year.
The export price index for March is unchanged from the prior month and up 0.5 percent in February from January. The March reding is lower than the consensus of up 0.1 percent in the Econoday survey. The export price index for agricultural products is also unchanged in March from February and the index for non-agricultural products is down 0.1percent. Compared to March 2024, the export price index is up 2.4 percent with agricultural products up 1.4 percent and non-agricultural products up 2.5 percent.
The only services tracked by the import and export price index report are air passenger and freight. The import index for air passenger services is up 0.6 percent in March from February and down 2.8 percent from a year ago. The import index for air freight is up 1.5 percent in March from the prior month and up 5.5 percent year-over-year. The export index for air passenger services is up 2.6 percent month-over-month in March and down 1.2 percent from a year ago. The export index for air freight is up 1.2 percent compared to the prior month and down 0.8 percent from a year earlier.
Rising costs for services will be a factor the FOMC's thinking about inflation where an uptick in non-housing services costs is going to keep disinflation from making further progress. Not only will consumer and business travel be more costly but getting goods to and from the US will see added costs.
Some of the decrease in fuel costs reflects falling energy prices which are priced in US dollars and some a firming in the US dollar from the same time last year.
The March import price index for foods, feeds, and beverages is up 0.1 percent month-over-month and up 6.4 percent year-over-year. The index for industrial supplies and materials is down 0.6 in March from February and up 2.4 percent year-over-year. The index for fuel prices reflects month-over-month declines of 1.5 percent for petroleum, 15.8 percent for coal and gas fuels, and 19.8 percent for natural gas. While petroleum prices are down 6.7 percent compared to a year ago, coals and gas fuels are up 45.2 percent and natural gas up 88.5 percent.
The indexes for imported finished goods are mixed in March. The index for capital gods is up 0.3 percent month-over-month and up 0.1 percent compared to March 2024. The index for automotive is down 0.1 percent from the prior month and up 1.1 percent from a year ago. The index for consumer goods excluding autos is down 0.2 percent from the prior month and down 0.7 percent from a year ago.
The export price index for foods, feeds, and beverages is up 0.2 percent in March from February and up 2.5 percent from a year ago. The index for exports of industrial supplies and materials is down 0.6 percent month-over-month and up 3.0 percent from March 2024.
The index for exports of finished goods are higher. In March, the indexes for capital goods exports is up 0.5 percent month-over-month and up 2.0 percent year-over-year, automotive is up 0.2 percent month-over-month and up 2.7 percent year-over-year, and consumer goods excluding autos is up 0.3 percent month-over-month and up 0.8 percent year-over-year.
The export price index for March is unchanged from the prior month and up 0.5 percent in February from January. The March reding is lower than the consensus of up 0.1 percent in the Econoday survey. The export price index for agricultural products is also unchanged in March from February and the index for non-agricultural products is down 0.1percent. Compared to March 2024, the export price index is up 2.4 percent with agricultural products up 1.4 percent and non-agricultural products up 2.5 percent.
The only services tracked by the import and export price index report are air passenger and freight. The import index for air passenger services is up 0.6 percent in March from February and down 2.8 percent from a year ago. The import index for air freight is up 1.5 percent in March from the prior month and up 5.5 percent year-over-year. The export index for air passenger services is up 2.6 percent month-over-month in March and down 1.2 percent from a year ago. The export index for air freight is up 1.2 percent compared to the prior month and down 0.8 percent from a year earlier.
Rising costs for services will be a factor the FOMC's thinking about inflation where an uptick in non-housing services costs is going to keep disinflation from making further progress. Not only will consumer and business travel be more costly but getting goods to and from the US will see added costs.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices are expected flat on the month and export prices up 0.1 percent on the month in March after rising 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent in February. Note the wide range of forecasts amid diverging views on tariff effects.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
