ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Annual Rate4.120M4.000M to 4.350M4.02M4.260M4.27M
Month over Month-5.9%4.2%4.4%
Year over Year-2.4%-1.2%-0.9%

Highlights

Sales of existing homes are down 5.9 percent in March to a 4.02 million unit seasonally adjusted annual rate. The March level is down 2.4 percent from a year ago, the second month in a row for a year-over-year decline. The level is below the consensus forecast of 4.12 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The decline reflects lower sales across all regions. Sales are down 2.0 percent in the Northeast, 5.0 percent in the Midwest, 5.2 percent in the South, and 9.4 percent in the West.

The decline is due to a drop of 6.4 percent in sales of single-family homes to 3.64 million units in March. Sales appear to have felt the impact of higher rates on mortgages obtained in January and February which had a negative impact. There may also be an element of uncertainty that is keeping some potential homebuyers out of the market. Sales of multi-unit homes are unchanged at 380,000 units.

The average Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was as high as 7.04 percent in the January 16 week, falling to 6.76 percent in the February 27 week, and then to 6.65 percent by March 27. Existing home sales represent closed contracts signed in the prior month or two.

The median price of an existing home is up 1.7 percent to $403,700 in March from February and is up 2.7 percent from year earlier. The supply of homes available for sale rose to 4.0 months in March from 3.5 in February.

The average number of days a home was on the market in March is 36, down from 42 in February and up from 33 in March 2024. First-time home buyers accounted for 32 percent of all sales in March, up a tick from 31 percent in February and the same as March 2024.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Home sales are contending with elevated mortgage rates and falling consumer sentiment. The consensus sees sales down at a 4.12 million unit rate from 4.26 million in February.

Definition

Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.

Description

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.

Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.
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