ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Initial Claims - Level225K215K to 230K223K219K
Initial Claims - Change4K-6K
4-Week Moving Average223K223K

Highlights

Jobless claims are just below the expected 225K at 223K in the latest week, up 4K from the previous week. The four-week moving average is flat at 223K from the previous week's unrevised level.

The insured unemployment rate is 1.2 percent for the week ending March 29, unchanged from the previous week. The previous week's rate was revised down by 0.1 from 1.3 to 1.2 percent.

Insured unemployment during the week ending March 29 is 1,850,000, down 43,000 from the previous week. The previous week's level was revised down by 10,000 from 1,903,000 to 1,893,000. The 4-week moving average is 1,867,750, down 250 from the previous week. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,500 from 1,870,500 to 1,868,000.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Claims are seen up to 225K after falling unexpectedly by 6K to 219K in the previous week.

Definition

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.

Description

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look-out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation looks threatening, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
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