| Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -29% | -28% |
Highlights
According to the CBI industrial trends survey, UK manufacturing output continued to lose momentum in the first quarter of 2025, with output volumes contracting more sharply than in the previous quarter (minus 18 vs minus 12 percent). This marked a widespread downturn, with 14 out of 17 manufacturing subsectors reporting declines, particularly in glass and ceramics, building materials, and electrical goods.
Order books offered little relief. While total orders remained broadly unchanged from February, they remained well below historical norms (minus 29 percent vs a long-run average of minus 13 percent). Export order books improved slightly but still reflected subdued international demand. Stock levels rose above average, suggesting supply is outpacing demand, a typical signal of weakening market conditions.
Despite falling output, expectations for selling prices remained high (22 percent), likely reflecting stubborn cost pressures and cautious optimism about pricing power. Manufacturers appear to be holding the line on pricing, even as volumes falter.
Looking ahead, the output is expected to stabilise in the second quarter (minus 2 percent), hinting at a possible plateau rather than immediate recovery. Overall, the manufacturing sector is treading water, navigating weak demand, inflationary pressures, and fragile global trade dynamics.
Order books offered little relief. While total orders remained broadly unchanged from February, they remained well below historical norms (minus 29 percent vs a long-run average of minus 13 percent). Export order books improved slightly but still reflected subdued international demand. Stock levels rose above average, suggesting supply is outpacing demand, a typical signal of weakening market conditions.
Despite falling output, expectations for selling prices remained high (22 percent), likely reflecting stubborn cost pressures and cautious optimism about pricing power. Manufacturers appear to be holding the line on pricing, even as volumes falter.
Looking ahead, the output is expected to stabilise in the second quarter (minus 2 percent), hinting at a possible plateau rather than immediate recovery. Overall, the manufacturing sector is treading water, navigating weak demand, inflationary pressures, and fragile global trade dynamics.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
