ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Month over Month0.51%0.64%
Year over Year5.9%6.2%5.3%5.2% to 5.5%

Highlights

Chinese industrial production rose 5.9 percent on the year for January and February combined, moderating from growth of 6.2 percent in December but above the consensus forecast of 5.3 percent. Separate year-over-year data for January and February are not published because of the impact of differences in the timing of lunar new year holidays from year to year. In month-over-month terms, industrial production rose 0.51 percent in February.

Within the industrial sector, manufacturing output rose 6.9 percent on the year for January and February combined after increasing 6.1 percent in December. Utilities output and mining output rose 1.1 percent and 4.3 percent on the year respectively after previous increases of 5.3 percent and 3.1 percent respectively.

Today's data follow recent policy measures aimed at supporting economic activity and a shift in the official monetary policy stance from"prudent" to"moderately loose". In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy has"got off to a steady start" in 2025, but cautioned that the external environment is"complex and severe" and that domestic demand remains"weak". Officials pledged to"implement more proactive and effective macro policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.

Data published today were generally stronger than consensus forecasts. The China's RPI rose from plus 29 to plus 50 while the RPI-P rose from plus 83 to plus 90, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in well above consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Growth in industrial production is seen at 5.3 percent on year in February versus 6.2 percent in January.

Definition

Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.

Description

Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.

The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
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