| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.35% | 0.12% | ||
| Year over Year | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% to 4.0% |
Highlights
Chinese retail sales rose 4.0 percent on the year for January and February combined, up from growth of 3.7 percent in December and above the consensus forecast of 3.8 percent. Separate data for January and February are not published because of the impact of differences in the timing of lunar new year holidays from year to year. In month-over-month terms, retail sales rose 0.35 percent in February.
Today's data follow recent policy measures aimed at supporting economic activity and a shift in the official monetary policy stance from"prudent" to"moderately loose". In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy has"got off to a steady start" in 2025, but cautioned that the external environment is"complex and severe" and that domestic demand remains"weak". Officials pledged to"implement more proactive and effective macro policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were generally stronger than consensus forecasts. The China's RPI rose from plus 29 to plus 50 while the RPI-P rose from plus 83 to plus 90, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in well above consensus forecasts.
Today's data follow recent policy measures aimed at supporting economic activity and a shift in the official monetary policy stance from"prudent" to"moderately loose". In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy has"got off to a steady start" in 2025, but cautioned that the external environment is"complex and severe" and that domestic demand remains"weak". Officials pledged to"implement more proactive and effective macro policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were generally stronger than consensus forecasts. The China's RPI rose from plus 29 to plus 50 while the RPI-P rose from plus 83 to plus 90, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in well above consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales growth has been sluggish with growth on year seen at 3.8 percent in February versus a softer 3.7 percent in January.
Definition
Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.
Description
Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
