Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Change | -25bp | 0bp to -25bp | -25bp | -50bp |
Level | 0.25% | 0.25% to 0.5% | 0.25% | 0.50% |
Highlights
Today's move reflects low inflation since the December MPA, in part attributed by the bank to January's drop in electricity prices. Inflation is still driven mostly by domestic services. The new forecast is largely the same as December. Annual inflation is now seen at 0.4 percent in 2025 (versus 0.3 percent in December), 0.8 percent in 2026 (0.8 percent) and 0.8 percent in 2027. The revised projection assumes that the SNB policy rate is 0.25 percent over the entire forecast horizon. Without today's cut, the new forecast would even be weaker.
In terms of the real economy, GDP growth is still expected to be quite modest between 1.0 percent and 1.5 percent this year. Domestic demand is likely going to benefit from the increase in real wages and the easing of monetary policy. However, uncertainty surrounding the global economy and weakened foreign trade suggests that unemployment will likely continue to increase.
In sum, today's announcement will probably not come as a major surprise as significant speculation about a possible 25 bp cut had been building. Today's policy statement is clearly dovish.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
The SNB has traditionally implemented its monetary policy by fixing a target range of 1.0 percentage points at the level deemed appropriate for the three-month Swiss franc Libor. The Bank has then normally sought to hold the rate around the middle of that corridor. However, as a result of strong capital inflows into the local currency prompted by the 2008/09 global downturn, this objective range has been both narrowed and reduced to just 0.0 - 0.25 percent, with a point target of 0.0 percent. In fact, since September 2011 the thrust of policy has been determined largely by the SNB's expressed aim of preventing the CHF strengthening beneath a CHF1.20 floor versus the euro.
The Swiss National Bank publishes its monetary policy assessments on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December. In these reports it describes the current monetary environment and formulates its monetary policy intentions for the following quarter. It also provides inflation forecasts which help financial markets to formulate of where monetary policy might be headed. Twice a year -- in June and in December -- the Bank holds a media conference. At that time, the Governing Board provides information about the economic situation and comments on its monetary policy.