| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 0.18 | -0.03 | -0.08 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
Highlights
The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) is up to positive 0.18 in February after negative 0.08 in January. The four broad categories of indicators that make up the index show 2 positive and 2 negative contributions in February. Among the categories 3 increased and 1 decreased.
The February reading is up mainly due to a pickup in production that probably reflects a rebound after the intense cold weather in January shut down some activity. The Chicago Fed says, Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above 0.35.
Production-related indicators are up to positive 0.19 in February after positive 0.02 in January. Sales, orders, and inventories are up to minus 0.01 in February after minus 0.04 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are down to positive 0.02 in February after positive 0.08 in January. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are up to minus 0.01 in February after minus 0.14 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in February is positive 0.15 compared to positive 0.07 in the prior month. This is the first time in about six months that the average and the headline index are better aligned which suggests that underlying conditions are consistently in modest expansion.
The February reading is up mainly due to a pickup in production that probably reflects a rebound after the intense cold weather in January shut down some activity. The Chicago Fed says, Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above 0.35.
Production-related indicators are up to positive 0.19 in February after positive 0.02 in January. Sales, orders, and inventories are up to minus 0.01 in February after minus 0.04 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are down to positive 0.02 in February after positive 0.08 in January. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are up to minus 0.01 in February after minus 0.14 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in February is positive 0.15 compared to positive 0.07 in the prior month. This is the first time in about six months that the average and the headline index are better aligned which suggests that underlying conditions are consistently in modest expansion.
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Description
This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
