ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Month over Month0.4%-0.2% to 0.4%0.4%0.4%
Year over Year2.3%2.3% to 2.3%2.3%2.3%
HICP - M/M0.6%0.6% to 0.6%0.5%0.6%
HICP - Y/Y2.8%2.8% to 2.8%2.6%2.8%

Highlights

The annual inflation rate remained steady in Germany at 2.3 percent, a signal that the economy continues its slow but persistent battle with price pressures. While food prices surged by 2.4 percent, intensifying from January's modest increase of 0.8 percent, energy prices continued to ease, falling by 1.6 percenta trend that has persisted for three months.

The acceleration in food price inflation, particularly in edible fats and oils (11.9 percent) and butter (27.9 percent), suggests vulnerabilities in supply chains or heightened demand. Meanwhile, service prices registered an above-average annual increase of 3.8 percent, with transport services (11.4 percent) and social facility services (10.4 percent) driving costs upwards. These increases reinforce the structural challenges in the services sector, where persistent price hikes could fuel long-term inflationary expectations.

Interestingly, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at 2.7 percent, exceeding the headline rate. These highlights sustained price pressures beyond energy volatility, particularly in essential goods and services. While declining energy prices offer some relief, the divergence between essential and discretionary spending patterns hints at potential shifts in household purchasing behaviour, leaving the RPI at minus 10 and the RPI-P at minus 14. This means that economic activities are slightly behind Germany's expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters see no revision in the final from the flash with CPI up 0.4 percent on month and 2.3 percent on year.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Germany where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Germany's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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