ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Composite Index50.550.5 to 50.550.550.6
Services Index51.151.1 to 51.151.050.8

Highlights

At 50.5, the final PMI composite index for February was unchanged from the flash estimate and the consensus. Down 0.1 points from January's final, the composite index for February signals a slower pace of expansion of business activities.

The service sector index rose to a final 51.0, down 0.1 points versus the flash estimate and up 0.2 points from January's 50.8. This signals expansion; however, it also posts below the long-run average of 54.3. Demand declined and new work decreased again in February due to constrained consumer spending, economic uncertainty, cost cutting and risk aversion among clients as well as delayed investments. Weakened demand and rising payroll costs led to employment falling once again with business confidence slipping to its lowest since December 2022. Still, growth in the service sector offset the decline in manufacturing.

February's data put the UK RPI at 39 and the RPI-P at 29 meaning that overall economic activity is slightly outperforming market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters see no revision from the flash at 50.5 for the composite and at 51.1 for services.

Definition

The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
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