Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.5% | 0.3% to 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
Year over Year | 2.9% | 2.8% to 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
Core CPI - M/M | 0.4% | -0.4% | ||
Core CPI - Y/Y | 3.5% | 3.7% |
Highlights
Despite the annual decrease, monthly CPI rose by 0.4 percent, a reversal from January's 0.1 percent fall. This suggests a short-term cost pressure persist. The CPI, including owner-occupiers' housing costs (CPIH), decreased from 3.9 percent to 3.7 percent on the year, with alcoholic beverages, tobacco and communication costs being the primary inflationary drivers, clothing and footwear, recreation and household services provided some relief.
Core CPIH eased slightly, rising 4.4 percent from 4.6 percent on the year. This reflects slight improvement in underlying inflationary pressures. The divergence between goods and services inflation, with services inflation nearly seven times higher, signals persistent cost-push factors that could challenge monetary policy decisions in the coming months. The latest update takes the UK RPI to 13 and RPI-P to 8. This means that economic activities are generally ahead of market expectations of the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Bank of England generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index which is calculated using the European Union's Eurostat methodology so that inflation can be compared across EU member states.