ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Composite Index50.250.2 to 50.250.250.2
Services Index50.750.7 to 51.350.651.3

Highlights

At 50.2 the final PMI composite index for February signalled a slight expansion of business activity. The latest print is unchanged from the flash estimate, consensus and the previous month.

At the national level, the best-performing countries were Spain (55.1), Ireland (53.4), Italy (51.9) and Germany (50.4), all of which saw an expansion of business activities. The weaker performing country was France (45.1) was fresh contractions falling short of the 50-growth threshold.

The final services PMI for February was 50.6, 0.1 points below the flash estimate and 0.7 points below January's final mark. This signalled a slower rate of expansion than January. Demand fell for the first time since November last year while employment subtle rise in service. Input cost continued to rise however, at the same rate as January's 9-month high. This led to what is quoted as, another historically sharp rise in output prices that was the most substantial for ten months. Still, business optimism remains largely positive.

As input cost inflation continues to rise it is likely that the ECB will at least consider cuts at their next meeting. February's data put the Eurozone RPI at 24 and the RPI-P at 30 meaning that overall economic activity is slightly outperforming market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision from the flash is the call with the composite at 50.2 and services steady at 50.7.

Definition

The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of the manufacturing and service sectors of the economy. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global using a representative sample of around 5,000 manufacturing and services companies, the former including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece and the latter Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Republic of Ireland.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
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