Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
HICP - Y/Y | 2.3% | 2.3% to 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
Narrow Core - Y/Y | 2.6% | 2.5% to 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
Highlights
Services inflation, the most significant contributor to overall inflation, dipped slightly to 3.7 percent from 3.9 percent, reflecting resilient demand but some moderation in cost pressures. However, food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation rose 2.7 percent from 2.3 percent, likely driven by volatile commodity prices and supply chain fluctuations. The most striking shift was in energy inflation, which plunged to 0.2 percent from 1.9 percent, suggesting a sharp cooling of energy costsa crucial relief for consumers and businesses alike. Meanwhile, non-energy industrial goods inflation ticked up marginally to 0.6 percent, indicating continued but weak pricing power in the manufacturing sector.
Regionally, headline inflation remained stable in Germany (2.8 percent after 2.8 percent), Spain (2.9 percent after 2.9 percent), and Italy (1.7 percent after 1.7 percent), while it fell in France (0.9 percent after 1.8 percent).
Although headline inflation moves in the right direction, core inflation remains sticky, particularly in services and essential goods. This signals that while monetary tightening has had some effect, inflationary risks persist, keeping policy vigilance necessary in the months ahead. The latest update takes the RPI to 16 and the RPI-P to 20, meaning that economic activities are slightly ahead of market expectations in the Euro area.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.