Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
HICP - M/M | 0.5% | 0.5% to 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.3% |
HICP - Y/Y | 2.4% | 2.4% to 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
Narrow Core - M/M | 0.5% | -0.9% | ||
Narrow Core - Y/Y | 2.6% | 2.7% |
Highlights
Services contributed the largest to inflation at 1.66 percentage points (pp). Food, alcohol, and tobacco contributed 0.52 pp, highlighting persistent price pressures in essential consumer goods. Meanwhile, non-energy industrial goods added 0.14 pp, suggesting moderate cost pressures in manufacturing. Interestingly, energy barely contributed 0.01 pp, indicating a declining energy marketa shift from previous inflationary spikes driven by fuel costs.
Among the 27 Member States, inflation fell in fourteen, remained unchanged in six, and rose in seven, indicating mixed price dynamics across the region. Among the biggest economies in the area, annual inflation remained steady in Spain (2.9 percent after 2.9 percent) and Italy (1.7 percent after 1.7 percent). However, it fell in France (0.9 percent after 1.8 percent) and Germany (2.6 percent after 2.8 percent). Inflation in Italy and France remained below the 2 percent target, while Germany and Spain continue to see inflation above the target.
The gradual disinflation trend reflects balanced economic adjustments, but sectoral disparities suggest underlying volatility that policymakers must monitor. The latest update leaves the RPI at 21 and takes the RPI-P to 31, meaning that economic activities are generally ahead of the euro area's expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.