ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
HICP - M/M0.5%0.5% to 0.5%0.4%-0.3%
HICP - Y/Y2.4%2.4% to 2.4%2.3%2.5%
Narrow Core - M/M0.5%-0.9%
Narrow Core - Y/Y2.6%2.7%

Highlights

The euro area's annual inflation rate declined to 2.3 percent in February, continuing a downward trend from 2.5 percent in January and 2.6 percent a year earlier. This suggests a moderate easing of price pressures, potentially influenced by stabilising economic conditions or policy interventions.

Services contributed the largest to inflation at 1.66 percentage points (pp). Food, alcohol, and tobacco contributed 0.52 pp, highlighting persistent price pressures in essential consumer goods. Meanwhile, non-energy industrial goods added 0.14 pp, suggesting moderate cost pressures in manufacturing. Interestingly, energy barely contributed 0.01 pp, indicating a declining energy marketa shift from previous inflationary spikes driven by fuel costs.

Among the 27 Member States, inflation fell in fourteen, remained unchanged in six, and rose in seven, indicating mixed price dynamics across the region. Among the biggest economies in the area, annual inflation remained steady in Spain (2.9 percent after 2.9 percent) and Italy (1.7 percent after 1.7 percent). However, it fell in France (0.9 percent after 1.8 percent) and Germany (2.6 percent after 2.8 percent). Inflation in Italy and France remained below the 2 percent target, while Germany and Spain continue to see inflation above the target.

The gradual disinflation trend reflects balanced economic adjustments, but sectoral disparities suggest underlying volatility that policymakers must monitor. The latest update leaves the RPI at 21 and takes the RPI-P to 31, meaning that economic activities are generally ahead of the euro area's expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters see no revision from the flash in headline HICP at up 0.5 percent on the month and up 2.4 percent on year.

Definition

The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is a measure of consumer prices used to calculate inflation on a consistent basis across the European Union. Changes in the index provide an estimate of inflation, as targeted by the European Central Bank (ECB). Eurostat provides statistics for the EU and Eurozone aggregates, individual member states and for the major subsectors. Over the short-term, the central bank focusses on a number of core measures which seek to strip out the most volatile components and so give a much better guide to underlying developments. Amongst these, financial markets normally concentrate upon the narrowest gauge which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco.

Description

The measure of choice in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is the harmonized index of consumer prices which has been constructed to allow cross member state comparisons. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In the European Monetary Union, where monetary policy decisions rest on the ECB's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.

Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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