The Challenger report on announced layoff intentions has a jump of 245.5 percent to 172,017 in February from 49,795 in January and is up 121.2 percent compared to 84,638 in February 2024. Over half of all layoff intentions are from 62,242 in government and 38,956 in retail. The slashing of jobs in the federal government is related to actions on the part of DOGE and accounts for 36.2 percent of all announced intentions. Retail accounts for another 22.6 percent of the total and reflects store closures as some major chains close and others restructure. Contraction in the technology sector continues and tech firms announced another 14,554 cuts in February.

It is clear at this point that the efforts to reduce the size of the federal workforce is the big news for 2025 and likely to dominate the year. However, there will be knock-on effects in the coming as contractors lose work and need to reduce payrolls.

Among reasons cited for layoff intentions, the leading reason is DOGE actions and DOGE downstream impacts which total 64,477, or 37.5 percent of reasons given. The next largest is bankruptcy at 35,172, or 20.4 percent of the total.

Hiring intentions are up 467.9 percent to 34,580 in February after 6,089 in January and up 235.2 percent from 10,317 in February 2024. However, the bulk of hiring plans are 28,000 in entertainment and leisure, or 81.0 percent of the total. Retailers do not typically announce their plans for hiring workers for spring seasonal jobs until March. It seems likely that plans will stay on the soft side this year as consumers are showing diminished confidence that will likely lead to less spending.

This monthly report counts and categorizes announcements of corporate layoffs based on mass layoff data from state departments of labor. The job-cut report must be analyzed with caution. It doesn't distinguish between layoffs scheduled for the short-term or the long term, or whether job cuts are handled through attrition or actual layoffs. Also, the job-cut report does not include jobs eliminated in small batches over a longer time period. Unlike most economic data, this series is not adjusted for seasonal variation.

The job-cut report is basically a rehash of the weekly jobless claims report but provides additional insight into where layoffs are occurring. There is industry and geographic (states) detail that is not available with weekly jobless claims.