ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Index51.651.6 to 51.652.751.2

Highlights

The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 52.7 in February, up from 51.2 in January, and compared to expectations for 51.6 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. This is the second successive month that the index has pointed to an uptick in activity within the manufacturing sector, with the rate of growth the best since June 2022.

Growth was underpinned by noticeable upturns in both production and new orders, the report said. There was some evidence that sector expansion was partially driven by advanced purchases ahead of likely price increases and possible supply disruption related to further tariff impositions in the coming months.

In terms of the likely inflationary impact of the coming higher customs duties, S&P Global also highlighted evidence that some suppliers were already adjusting their prices upwards in direct response to tariffs.

Input cost inflation rose to its highest level since November 2022. Output charges also rose to a steeper degree, with inflation picking up to a two-year high in February, it added.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Forecasters expect no revision from the flash at 51.6.

Definition

Based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies, the Purchasing Managers' Manufacturing Index (PMI) offers an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across manufacturing industries. The final index for the current month is released roughly a week after the flash.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the Markit PMIs in the U.S. and elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The Markit PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.

Markit originally began collecting monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data in the U.S. in April 2004, initially from a panel of manufacturers in the U.S. electronics goods producing sector. In May 2007, Markit's U.S. PMI research was extended out to cover producers of metal goods. In October 2009, Markit's U.S. Manufacturing PMI survey panel was extended further to cover all areas of U.S. manufacturing activity. Back data for Markit's U.S. Manufacturing PMI between May 2007 and September 2009 are an aggregation of data collected from producers of electronic goods and metal goods producers, while data from October 2009 are based on data collected from a panel representing the entire U.S. manufacturing economy. Markit's total U.S. Manufacturing PMI survey panel comprises over 600 companies.
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