| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-City Adjusted - M/M | 0.5% | 0.5% | ||
| 20-City Unadjusted - M/M | 0.1% | -0.1% | ||
| 20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% to 4.6% |
Highlights
The 20-city composite index is up 4.7 percent in January from a year ago, topping the expected 4.5 percent figure, and compared with 4.5 percent in December.
The index gains 0.5 percent on the month seasonally adjusted and 0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted.
On year, New York again shows the top gain among the 20 cities
with a 7.7 percent rise in January, followed by Chicago and Boston with increases of 7.5 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively. Tampa was lowest, falling 1.5 percent.
The numbers suggest that the long period of steady declines in the yearly rate of increases has stopped and prices are now rising at about the same clip, in the mid-4 percent range.
The index gains 0.5 percent on the month seasonally adjusted and 0.1 percent not seasonally adjusted.
On year, New York again shows the top gain among the 20 cities
with a 7.7 percent rise in January, followed by Chicago and Boston with increases of 7.5 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively. Tampa was lowest, falling 1.5 percent.
The numbers suggest that the long period of steady declines in the yearly rate of increases has stopped and prices are now rising at about the same clip, in the mid-4 percent range.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The 20-city composite index is expected up 4.5 percent again in January after rising 4.5 percent in December, and 4.3 percent in November.
Definition
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.
Description
Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.
Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
