Highlights
If the US economy is facing heightened uncertainty about the future, its present moderate growth and balanced labor market provide no reason to change current monetary policy. The FOMC remains squarely focused on inflation and the present restrictive stance is intended to return the US to price stability in line with the Fed's 2% inflation objective.
The impact of tariffs on inflation is an unknown, and one that creates an environment in which it is difficult to parse out the signal from the noise. Powell acknowledged that higher tariffs are leading to some inflation, but how much is difficult to quantify, or if the impact is short-term and will not push prices up further once imposed.
The decision to slow the pace of decline in the Fed's balance sheet was described as technical and absolutely not one of monetary policy. Powell said the amount of reserves remain abundant but with some tentative signs that the level is getting closer to ample. However, the FOMC has made no decisions about when to end the program of shrinking the balance sheet or ultimately what size the balance sheet will be in an ample reserves environment.
This is the second time the FOMC has decided to reduce the cap on reinvestments of US treasuries. The first time was announced starting in June 2024 from $60 billion to $25 billion, and now in April 2025 from $25 billion to $5 billion. There was no change of the $35 billion cap in reinvestments of mortgage-backed securities in either announcement. The decision is in support of moving toward a balance sheet with treasuries only.
Powell declined to comment on specific political decisions. He did note that the new administration's actions are primarily in four areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation.