Highlights

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a consistent message in his post-FOMC press briefing: monetary policy is well positioned to respond appropriately to changes in the economy, and at present, Fed policymakers can be patient before making any changes. If the soft data like surveys of consumer and business confidence, and inflation expectations is anticipating slower growth and higher inflation, that has not yet been seen in the hard data. The FOMC is looking for greater clarity before making any interest rate policy decisions. He did observe that the relationship between survey data and actual consumer and business behavior has not been very tight.

If the US economy is facing heightened uncertainty about the future, its present moderate growth and balanced labor market provide no reason to change current monetary policy. The FOMC remains squarely focused on inflation and the present restrictive stance is intended to return the US to price stability in line with the Fed's 2% inflation objective.

The impact of tariffs on inflation is an unknown, and one that creates an environment in which it is difficult to parse out the signal from the noise. Powell acknowledged that higher tariffs are leading to some inflation, but how much is difficult to quantify, or if the impact is short-term and will not push prices up further once imposed.

The decision to slow the pace of decline in the Fed's balance sheet was described as technical and absolutely not one of monetary policy. Powell said the amount of reserves remain abundant but with some tentative signs that the level is getting closer to ample. However, the FOMC has made no decisions about when to end the program of shrinking the balance sheet or ultimately what size the balance sheet will be in an ample reserves environment.

This is the second time the FOMC has decided to reduce the cap on reinvestments of US treasuries. The first time was announced starting in June 2024 from $60 billion to $25 billion, and now in April 2025 from $25 billion to $5 billion. There was no change of the $35 billion cap in reinvestments of mortgage-backed securities in either announcement. The decision is in support of moving toward a balance sheet with treasuries only.


Powell declined to comment on specific political decisions. He did note that the new administration's actions are primarily in four areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation.

Definition

The Fed announced in 2011 that then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke would hold press briefings four times a year to explain the FOMC's latest quarterly economic projections. The purpose of the briefings is to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions and to allow for questions-and-answers with the press. According to the Fed, the"introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication." The press briefing is held at 2:30 p.m. ET on the days of FOMC statements in which quarterly projections are released. Beginning in 2019, the briefing will be held after each FOMC meeting. The policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET after the conclusion of every FOMC meeting regardless of whether there are forecasts or not.

Description

The Fed’s meeting statement and economic projections can move financial markets. However, the Fed’s meeting statement — which indicates any changes in monetary policy—typically is very concise and lacking in detail. However, the Fed now releases its economic forecasts four times a year. As of March 20, 2013, the forecasts are released at the same time as the FOMC statement during the months of March, June, September, and December. After each of the 8 Fed meetings, the chair holds a press conference to explain the forecasts and other policy issues. The chair’s press conference allows for the financial markets and public in general to learn more about why and how the monetary policy decision was made and to learn more about FOMC views on the direction of the economy—including real growth, inflation, unemployment, expected timing of changes in the fed funds rate, and expected levels of the fed funds rate in the near term.
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