Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -1.5% | -2.4% to -0.2% | -4.5% | 2.3% | +1.6% |
Year over Year | 4.0% | 2.5% to 5.6% | 0.8% | 2.7% |
Highlights
The core measure of real average household spending (excluding housing, motor vehicles and remittance), a key indicator used in GDP calculation, fell 0.8% on the year after rising 1.4% the previous month, when the overall spending surged 2.7%.
On the month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people plunged a seasonally adjusted 4.5% (vs. consensus -1.5%) after rising 1.5% (revised down from +2.3%) in December and edging up 0.4% in November. Recent figures were revised in an annual update to seasonal adjustments.
The average real income of households with salaried workers dipped 1.1% on year in January for the first drop in four months after rising 2.9% in December as rising costs of living continued to hurt many households. The average real income of the primary bread earners was up just 0.2% for the fourth straight gain after rising 2.8% the previous month while their spouses' average income marked its first drop in 12 months, down 1.5%, following a 0.2% gain.
In nominal terms, the average household income grew 3.5%, slowing from recent increases of 7.2% in December, 4.1% in November and 3.7% in October.
In another set of data, total monthly average cash earnings per regular employee in Japan posted their 37th straight year-on-year rise, up a nominal 2.8% in January, after rising 4.4% in December. Base wages rose a solid 3.1% on year, from 2.6% the previous month. However, real average wages slumped 1.8% for the first y/y drop in three months after small gains of 0.3% gain in December and 0.5% in November.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The year-on-year increase is seen accelerating from an unexpected 2.7% jump and the first rise in five months in December, when consumers rushed to donate to prefectures that offer generous free goods and services in return by the Dec. 31 tax year deadline.
On the month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people are expected to slip back 1.5% amid depressed real wages after soaring 2.3% in December, edging up 0.4% in November and surging 2.9% in October.