Japanese payrolls posted their 30th straight rise on year in January amid widespread labor shortages. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.5% for the third consecutive month (December's 2.4% was revised up by a tick) after edging up to the level in October from September's 2.4%, which was the lowest in more than four years (since 2.4% in February 2020). Figures for recent years have been updated in an annual revision.

No change in the jobless rate was because decreases in job cuts/retirements (-7.5%) and those who quit for other positions (-1.3%) were offset by a 11.6% jump in the number of people who began looking for work and thus were counted as being jobless.

In unadjusted data, employment surged 650,000 on the year to 67.79 million in January after rising 570,000 in December. The number of unemployed was unchanged 1.63 million after marking a fifth straight year-on-year drop the previous month, when it dipped 20,000 to a pre-pandemic level of 1.54 million, which was the lowest since 1.46 million in December 2019 (it was 1.60 million in January 2020).

The year-on-year job creation was led by the medical and welfare industry, hotels/restaurants and"other services. Manufacturing and construction continued to show declines.

Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 30th straight rise on year in January amid widespread labor shortages. The unemployment rate is forecast at 2.4% after improving slightly to 2.4% in December from 2.5% in November and October. September’s 2.4% was an eight-month low. The government continues to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement” in its latest monthly economic report.

The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.

The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.

By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.