| Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -28% | -34% |
Highlights
The latest CBI industrial trends survey paints a picture of resilience amid ongoing challenges in the UK manufacturing sector. While output volumes declined in the three months to February (minus 12 percent), the pace remained stable compared to January (minus 13 percent). However, a shift in sentiment is emerging, with manufacturers expecting a modest recovery by May (8 percent), hinting at cautious optimism.
Order books showed slight improvement but remained below long-term norms, with total orders at minus 28 percent (up from minus 34 percent) and export orders largely stagnant at minus 36 percent. This signal continued weak demand, exacerbated by global economic uncertainty. Stock adequacy saw a sharp decline, suggesting firms are depleting inventories faster than anticipated, potentially driving the expected rebound in output.
Price pressures have eased, with expected selling price inflation falling to 19 percent (from 27 percent), yet it remains above the historical average (7 percent). This suggests manufacturers are still grappling with cost pressures, particularly in energy and employment.
The latest update emphasizes the need for government intervention to bolster industrial growth. With manufacturers poised for recovery, aligning industrial strategy with investment and skills development could transform this fragile optimism into sustained expansion. The latest update leaves the RPI at 20 and the RPI-P at 6, meaning that economic activities are well ahead of market expectations of the UK economy.
Order books showed slight improvement but remained below long-term norms, with total orders at minus 28 percent (up from minus 34 percent) and export orders largely stagnant at minus 36 percent. This signal continued weak demand, exacerbated by global economic uncertainty. Stock adequacy saw a sharp decline, suggesting firms are depleting inventories faster than anticipated, potentially driving the expected rebound in output.
Price pressures have eased, with expected selling price inflation falling to 19 percent (from 27 percent), yet it remains above the historical average (7 percent). This suggests manufacturers are still grappling with cost pressures, particularly in energy and employment.
The latest update emphasizes the need for government intervention to bolster industrial growth. With manufacturers poised for recovery, aligning industrial strategy with investment and skills development could transform this fragile optimism into sustained expansion. The latest update leaves the RPI at 20 and the RPI-P at 6, meaning that economic activities are well ahead of market expectations of the UK economy.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
