The unadjusted merchandise trade surplus grew significantly from a smaller revised CHF3.48 billion in December to CHF6.12 billion in January 2025. This is also larger than the CH4.67 billion posted a year ago. The yearly improvement reflected a 7.4 percent rise in exports and a 1.2 percent rise in imports.

With export volumes decreasing 1.5 percent on the month and their import counterpart falling 8.4 percent, today's update points to a marked deterioration in the real trade balance and a potential hit to fourth quarter GDP growth.

The seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus was CHF4.0 billion with adjusted exports down 6.9 percent and imports down 6.8 percent in January. This decline was mainly due to the pharmaceutical sector. With President Trump potentially raising tariffs on trade with the EU, it's worth noting that exports to the US (and China) fell sharply in January.

The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between the total value of Swiss merchandise exports and imports. The focus is on the balance of trade in goods, excluding precious metals, gemstones, works of art and antiques. This is provided in unadjusted and seasonally adjusted measures for cash and volume.

Changes in the level of imports and exports along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Swiss franc in the foreign exchange market. Switzerland's major trading partners include Germany, France, Italy and the United States. While Switzerland still exports large amounts of traditional products such as chocolate and watches, more than half of Swiss exports are in mechanical and electrical engineering and chemicals today. A positive trade balance indicates a trade surplus while a negative balance represents a trade deficit. Trade surpluses indicate that foreigners are buying more Swiss goods, which are typically paid for in Swiss Francs. This translates into greater demand for the currency and upward pressure on the value of the Franc. However, if the balance is a deficit, Swiss consumers are buying goods from trading partners which translates into higher demand for foreign currencies placing downward pressure on the value of the Franc.