The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) is down to minus 0.03 in January after positive 0.18 in December. The January reading is below the consensus of 0.00 (zero) in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The four broad categories of indicators that make up the index show 2 positive and 2 negative contributions in January. Among the categories 1 increased and 3 decreased.

The January reading is down mainly due to the softening in personal consumption and housing related indicators. Consumers pulled back spending at the start of the year after an active fourth quarter 2024 and increasing concerns about job security are adding worries about home affordability. The Chicago Fed says, Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above 0.35.

Production-related indicators are down to positive 0.03 in January after positive 0.19 in December. Sales, orders, and inventories are down to positive 0.04 in January after minus 0.00 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are up to positive 0.07 in January after positive 0.01 in December. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are down to minus 0.14 in January after positive 0.02 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in January is positive 0.03 compared to minus 0.13 in the prior month.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.