The latest producer price data suggests a gradual easing of cost pressures for manufacturers, though signs of price stabilisation are emerging. Year-over-year, producer input prices fell by 0.1 percent in January 2025, a more modest decline compared to the 1.3 percent revised drop in December 2024. Meanwhile, factory gate prices (producer output prices) edged up by 0.3 percent annually, reversing the 0.1 percent fall in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, both input and output prices recorded notable increases of 0.8 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, signalling a potential shift towards higher cost pressures in early 2025. A key factor behind the continued weakness in input costs is the sharp 14.0 percent annual decline in fuel prices, which has helped offset broader inflationary trends. Similarly, output prices were constrained by a 14.1 percent drop in the prices of coke and refined petroleum products, keeping overall factory gate inflation subdued.

While these figures suggest easing input cost pressures, the monthly uptick raises questions about whether the trend will persist. If input costs continue to rise, manufacturers may pass these increases onto consumers, potentially feeding into broader inflation in the coming months. The latest update takes the UK RPI to 20 and RPI-P to 6. This means that economic activities are generally ahead of market expectations of the UK economy.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the prices of goods bought and sold by manufacturers. The input price index measure the prices of materials and fuels purchased by manufacturers for processing. These are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day running. The output price index captures prices charged by manufacturers as they pass through the factory gate and excludes any VAT or similar deductible tax. Both measures may be seen as leading indicators of consumer price index (CPI) inflation although the short-term correlation is only very weak.

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. A producer's price is the amount received by a producer from the purchaser of a unit of goods or services produced as output less any value added tax (VAT) or similar deductible tax, invoiced to the purchaser. It excludes any transportation charges invoiced separately by the producer.

The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.

The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.

The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.