| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3-Months over 3-Months | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
Highlights
The UK economy exhibited modest resilience in December 2024, with real GDP expanding by 0.4 percent month-over-month, which is about 0.3 percentage points above the consensus and primarily driven by the services sector. This marks an acceleration from November's 0.1 percent growth and underscores the continued dominance of services in economic expansion. Over the three months to December, GDP edged up by 0.1 per cent, signalling steady yet subdued momentum.
A standout performer was production output, rebounding by 0.5 percent in December after a 0.5 percent contraction in November. However, manufacturing weaknesses persisted, dragging down overall production by 0.8 percent over the quarter. Meanwhile, construction output slipped by 0.2 percent in December after a brief resurgence in November (0.6 percent), though it maintained quarterly growth of 0.5 percent.
The year-over-year GDP expansion of 1.5 percent in December signals a degree of economic stability, albeit with sectoral imbalances. The services sector's continued growth indicates strong consumer demand, while the production sector remains volatile. The challenge ahead lies in sustaining momentum amid manufacturing downturns and construction volatility. While positive signals emerge, the economy's reliance on services could pose long-term structural concerns, necessitating broader industrial resilience. The latest update puts the UK RPI and RPI-P at 5. This means that economic activities are generally within the consensus of the UK economy.
A standout performer was production output, rebounding by 0.5 percent in December after a 0.5 percent contraction in November. However, manufacturing weaknesses persisted, dragging down overall production by 0.8 percent over the quarter. Meanwhile, construction output slipped by 0.2 percent in December after a brief resurgence in November (0.6 percent), though it maintained quarterly growth of 0.5 percent.
The year-over-year GDP expansion of 1.5 percent in December signals a degree of economic stability, albeit with sectoral imbalances. The services sector's continued growth indicates strong consumer demand, while the production sector remains volatile. The challenge ahead lies in sustaining momentum amid manufacturing downturns and construction volatility. While positive signals emerge, the economy's reliance on services could pose long-term structural concerns, necessitating broader industrial resilience. The latest update puts the UK RPI and RPI-P at 5. This means that economic activities are generally within the consensus of the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for monthly GDP up a marginal 0.1 percent again in December after the same 0.1 percent rise in November.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The monthly report is based on output data only as the income and expenditure series are not available.
Description
GDP covers all aspects of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. GDP contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. However, the monthly report is quite limited and only provides data on the main output sectors. More detailed information is available in the quarterly reports.
