Recent History | |||||||
On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
Aug-24 | 11.095 | 100.3% | 1.976 | 98.7% | 1.819 | 96.5% | 5.958 |
Sep-24 | 11.198 | 100.6% | 2.156 | 98.1% | 1.698 | 102.0% | 6.123 |
Oct-24 | 11.600 | 100.0% | 2.266 | 104.4% | 1.845 | 104.7% | 5.932 |
Nov-24 | 11.966 | 100.1% | 1.796 | 96.3% | 1.725 | 98.5% | 5.733 |
Dec-24 | 11.982 | 99.7% | 1.642 | 96.7% | 1.742 | 101.0% | 5.930 |
Jan-25 | 11.823 | 99.1% | 1.822 | 101.7% | 1.869 | 101.4% | 6.288 |
Feb-25 | 11.716 | 99.3% | - | - | - | - | 6.630 |
Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
Estimates | |||||
As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
On Feed | Feb | 99.2% | 98.7% | 99.9% | 100.4% |
Placements | Jan | 102.7% | 98.6% | 106.1% | 92.5% |
Marketings | Jan | 102.1% | 101.3% | 102.5% | 99.8% |
Highlights
Placements for the month of January at 101.7% versus trade expectations of 102.7% and a range of 98.6% to 106.1%. Net placements were 1.76 million head. During January, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 lbs. were 365,000 head, 600-699 lbs. were 395,000, 700-799 lbs. were 505,000, 800-899 lbs. were 382,000, 900-999 lbs. were 105,000, and 1,000+ lbs. were 70,000.
Marketings for January were 101.4% of last year, compared with the average estimate of 102.1% and a range of 101.3% to 102.5%. Other disappearance totaled 60,000 head during January, 26% below 2024.
Today's report can be considered slightly bullish on the lower-than-expected placements, and opening calls for Monday morning are likely to be moderately higher. Live cattle prices have had a tough start to 2024, with this week's lower close marking the 4th consecutive weekly decline, and cash cattle trade also lower this week. Short-term technical indicators are very oversold, and today's slightly bullish report may be enough to spark a short-covering rally early next week. If the market extends below the 100-day moving average, larger retracement support to the contract lows set back in August is 191.65.