Recent History
On FeedPlacementsMarketingsOn Feed
MonthMillion Head% YoYMillion Head% YoYMillion Head% YoY90+ Days
Aug-2411.095100.3%1.97698.7%1.81996.5%5.958
Sep-2411.198100.6%2.15698.1%1.698102.0%6.123
Oct-2411.600100.0%2.266104.4%1.845104.7%5.932
Nov-2411.966100.1%1.79696.3%1.72598.5%5.733
Dec-2411.98299.7%1.64296.7%1.742101.0%5.930
Jan-2511.82399.1%1.822101.7%1.869101.4%6.288
Feb-2511.71699.3%----6.630
Cattle on Feed Estimates
Estimates
As OfAverageLowHighLast Year
On FeedFeb99.2%98.7%99.9%100.4%
PlacementsJan102.7%98.6%106.1%92.5%
MarketingsJan102.1%101.3%102.5%99.8%

Highlights

Cattle on Feed supply as of February 1st was 99.3% of last year, compared to the average trade estimate of 99.2% and a range of 98.7% to 99.9%.

Placements for the month of January at 101.7% versus trade expectations of 102.7% and a range of 98.6% to 106.1%. Net placements were 1.76 million head. During January, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 lbs. were 365,000 head, 600-699 lbs. were 395,000, 700-799 lbs. were 505,000, 800-899 lbs. were 382,000, 900-999 lbs. were 105,000, and 1,000+ lbs. were 70,000.

Marketings for January were 101.4% of last year, compared with the average estimate of 102.1% and a range of 101.3% to 102.5%. Other disappearance totaled 60,000 head during January, 26% below 2024.

Today's report can be considered slightly bullish on the lower-than-expected placements, and opening calls for Monday morning are likely to be moderately higher. Live cattle prices have had a tough start to 2024, with this week's lower close marking the 4th consecutive weekly decline, and cash cattle trade also lower this week. Short-term technical indicators are very oversold, and today's slightly bullish report may be enough to spark a short-covering rally early next week. If the market extends below the 100-day moving average, larger retracement support to the contract lows set back in August is 191.65.

Definition

This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.

Description

This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
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