The S&P Global Singapore PMI survey indicates the aggregate economy contracted for the first time in nearly two years in January, with the survey's headline index falling to 49.9 from 51.5 in December. This is the fifth consecutive decline in the index. Respondents reported that an outbreak of COVID-19 in Singapore had contributed significantly to the weakness seen in January and also expressed concerns that this impact may persist.

Survey respondents reported output and new orders both fell in January for the first time since early 2023, with payrolls also reported to have been cut for the second consecutive month. The survey's measure of business confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly two years. Respondents also reported both input costs and selling prices rose at an above-average pace, despite easing from the increases recorded in December.

The Nikkei Singapore PMI is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to executives in over 400 private sector companies, selected to accurately represent the true structure of the Singapore economy, including manufacturing, services, construction and retail. The panel is stratified by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) group, based on industry contribution to GDP. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. For each of the indicators the ‘Report’ shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of higher/better responses and lower/worse responses, and the ‘diffusion’ index. This index is the sum of the positive responses plus a half of those responding ‘the same’.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a composite index based on five of the individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders - 0.3, Output - 0.25, Employment - 0.2, Suppliers’ Delivery Times - 0.15, Stock of Items Purchased - 0.1, with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction.

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below 50 an overall decrease.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.