| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 50.6 | 50.5 to 50.8 | 50.1 | 50.5 |
Highlights
The S&P Global China manufacturing PMI showed stagnant conditions in the sector in January, with the headline index falling to just 50.1 from 50.5 in December. Official PMI survey published last week also showed that conditions in the sector were very subdued in January.
Respondents to the S&P PMI survey reported output and new orders rose at a faster pace in January, but new export orders were reported to have fallen. Payrolls were reported to have been cut at the fastest pace in nearly five years, but the survey's measure of business confidence, though higher, remained below-average, with some respondents citing concerns about the prospect of the Trump Administration imposing tariffs. The survey also shows input costs rose at a slower pace in January and that firms cut selling prices for the second consecutive month and at the fastest pace in more than a year.
Today's data were weaker than the consensus forecast of 50.6 for the survey's headline index. The China RPI and the RPI-P fell from plus 20 to plus 6 and from plus 29 to plus 8 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Respondents to the S&P PMI survey reported output and new orders rose at a faster pace in January, but new export orders were reported to have fallen. Payrolls were reported to have been cut at the fastest pace in nearly five years, but the survey's measure of business confidence, though higher, remained below-average, with some respondents citing concerns about the prospect of the Trump Administration imposing tariffs. The survey also shows input costs rose at a slower pace in January and that firms cut selling prices for the second consecutive month and at the fastest pace in more than a year.
Today's data were weaker than the consensus forecast of 50.6 for the survey's headline index. The China RPI and the RPI-P fell from plus 20 to plus 6 and from plus 29 to plus 8 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for a tiny improvement to 50.6 in January from 50.5 in December.
Definition
The S&P Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is based on monthly a questionnaire that surveys of over 500 companies which provide an advance indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking changes in variables such as output, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices across the manufacturing sectors.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The S&P PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
The S&P PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
